UK consumer prices declined 0.5% in January and, although the year-on-year rate increased to 1.8% from 1.6% which was the highest rate since June 2014, this was slightly lower than the consensus forecast of a sharper increase to 1.9%.
There was significant upward pressure on transport costs which was offset by a decline in clothing prices.
The data will dampen expectations that the Bank of England may need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively to curb inflation, although there was a larger than expected increase in producer prices which suggests underlying pressures may be building.
Sterling weakened significantly following the inflation data with the UK currency moving back below the 1.2500 level as the Euro moved to the 0.8520 area, although gilts reversed initial gains.
The UK currency was resilient at lower levels and regained support during the New York session as the Euro retreated back below 0.8500. The latest labour-market data will be released on Wednesday with a particular focus on the earnings data.
Most Valuable Currencies in the world as at January 2025 Not a surprise that the Kuwaiti Dinar at $3.24 tops the league table nor that the Bahraini Dinar $2.65 and the Omani Riyal at $2.59 are also in the top 5. But maybe UK Chancellor Reeves should pay more attention to the magnificent legacy for […]
Europe With EU annual inflation coming in at 2.4% up from 2.2%, conventional wisdom might suggest that that might dampen the ECB’s enthusiasm for an early cut in EUR interest rates at the end of January. But such is the weakness pervading the EU economies, it is more likely that the hawkish tendencies at the […]
British Pound GBP at its lowest for over 1 year while UK Government borrowing costs are at their highest for 16 years is not a good look and a situation that will further constrain Chancellor Reeves on delivering on her oft repeated but as yet undelivered promises on growth. Tax increases and spending cuts are […]