Daily Brief – UK Budget Day

UK Budget Day

Chancellor Reeves has already leaked/floated so many potential measures for her Budget later today interwoven with promises/denials as to what are the red lines which will not be included in her maiden Budget, that we are all suffering from an overload of (dis)information while hoping that much of It, will end up in the Treasury waste paper basket. What we do know is that It Will Be Big because Chancellor Reeves has promised that it will be big. But will it be transformational for the economy as some of her predecessors’ Budgets have been or would have been in the case of Kwasi Kwarteng if he had been allowed to stick around by the markets and his boss Liz Truss? We will find out all too soon. GBP up until now trading in a tight range.

GBP/USD 1.2975

US Presidential Election: Green implications

Stark differences between Trump and Harris despite the latter being coy as to what her plans would be, so it is safe to assume that Harris would pursue the agenda of the current administration. Meanwhile all Harris has said is that she will ensure “the freedom to breathe clean air, drink clean water and to live free from the pollution that fuels the climate crisis.” Trump however has promised to repeal at least 100 of the recent “kamikaze climate regulations” and when it comes to energy to “drill baby drill.”

EUR/USD 1.0805

Cruise Control

Cruising aficionados will be familiar with the brands Royal Caribbean and Carnival which are two of the world’s largest cruise ship companies. Now Royal Caribbean is making waves as it forges ahead of its rivals revenue-wise as it takes advantage of a savvy business decision to create its own private destination island teeming with restaurants, beaches and bars having created CocoCay in 2019 which also boasts an amusement park: Perfect Day. Others are scrambling to catch up and there are now 12 private destinations in the Caribbean. Royal Caribbean has seen its revenues grow 34% and its ticket sales increase by 43% hence the rush.

GBP/EUR 1.2032

Oil

Seesawing oil prices due to worries about global demand offset by oil supply from the Persian Gulf saw oil fall 6% on Monday. Then yesterday the USA decided to take advantage of the lower prices to top up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve which sent oil up 1% immediately. And that’s a week before the reality of Donald Trump if he is elected and his promise to send the oil price lower still by embarking on an all out fracking and drilling splurge.

Brent USD 71.59

Bohemian Rhapsody

This day in 1975 Queen came out with a classical sounding very long single that featured the lads singing what sounded awfully like opera in a variety of keys led by their falsetto frontman Freddie Mercury which their record label confidently predicted would be a disastrous non selling flop. It was a smash and remained at Number One for 13 weeks. Reissued 16 years later in 1991 it featured in the movie Wayne’s World and… became a smash hit all over again.

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality
Open your eyes, look up to the skies and see
I’m just a poor boy, I need no sympathy
Because I’m easy come, easy go
Little high, little low
Any way the wind blows doesn’t really matter to me, to me

Mama, just killed a man
Put a gun against his head, pulled my trigger, now he’s dead
Mama, life had just begun
But now I’ve gone and thrown it all away
Mama, ooh, didn’t mean to make you cry
If I’m not back again this time tomorrow
Carry on, carry on as if nothing really matters

Too late, my time has come
Sends shivers down my spine, body’s aching all the time
Goodbye, everybody, I’ve got to go
Gotta leave you all behind and face the truth
Mama, ooh (any way the wind blows)
I don’t wanna die
I sometimes wish I’d never been born at all

I see a little silhouetto of a man
Scaramouche, Scaramouche, will you do the Fandango?
Thunderbolt and lightning, very, very frightening me
(Galileo) Galileo, (Galileo) Galileo, Galileo Figaro, magnifico
But I’m just a poor boy, nobody loves me
He’s just a poor boy from a poor family
Spare him his life from this monstrosity

Easy come, easy go, will you let me go?

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter