Daily Brief – Trump and Europe

Trump and Europe

Even before a week has elapsed since Trump’s resounding victory, analysts are scrabbling to work out what it all means for Europe. Broadly for the major European economies the sanctions mooted by Trump in his election pitch will mean a fall in their individual 2025 GDPs of between 0.3 and 0.4% and for the EU bloc and the UK falls of 0.5%. This is predicted to be offset by increases in Defense spending bearing in mind Trump’s views on NATO but not enough to move the dial much if at all.

EUR/USD 1.0718.

France

It was of course President General de Gaulle who posed the question: How do you govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese? 60 years later those 246 varieties are shrinking in number due to French people moving towards the trend for grating or chopping cheeses over their food rather than enjoying the traditional cheese course while dining. The sight of a chariot de fromages being wheeled towards a restaurant table  is looking to become increasingly rare. A clear case of Quel domage rather than Quel fromage.

GBP/EUR 1.2050.

Pompeii

Such is the appeal for exploring a live archaeological site or one that is still 2000 years after its destruction by Mount Vesuvius erupting still disclosing secrets almost every month that visitor numbers average 16000 per day. Free entry to the site was offered on a Sunday in October and 36000 took advantage of  it. Pompeii has now put a lid of 20000 per day but fascination for the fate of its long dead citizens shows no sign of diminishing.

GBP/USD 1.2920.

Berlin

35 years ago the Berlin Wall came down and East and West Germany were reunited after 28 years . On Saturday there were celebrations and concerts to mark the occasion. Several hundred meters away Chancellor Scholz will have been wishing he could unify a workable coalition.

EUR/JPY 163.61.

MacArthur Park

This lengthy disco version by Donna Summer went to Number One this day in 1978 and for all of you who are still wondering what those lyrics meant about after being left out in the rain the cake melting in the dark, it is a metaphor for the ending of a love affair.

Spring was never waiting for us, dear
It ran one step ahead
As we followed in the dance

MacArthur’s Park is melting in the dark
All the sweet, green icing flowing down
Someone left the cake out in the rain
I don’t think that I can take it
‘Cause it took so long to bake it
And I’ll never have that recipe again
Oh, no

I recall the yellow cotton dress
Foaming like a wave
On the ground beneath your knees
The birds, like tender babies in your hands
And the old men playing Chinese checkers by the trees

MacArthur’s Park is melting in the dark
All the sweet, green icing flowing down
Someone left the cake out in the rain
I don’t think that I can take it
‘Cause it took so long to bake it
And I’ll never have that recipe again
Oh, no

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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