SGM-FX insights

UK Equities We wrote recently about a European wide Santa Rally in Equities despite the political headwinds in Continental Europe, but it looks as if the UK market has finally managed to break out on the top side of its range and without wishing to jinx it, may be set fair. One well known Fund […]

One government builds, another falls SGM-FX has covered the run up to the vote of no confidence in Barnier’s infantile French government somewhat comprehensively. Despite this it still feels necessary to highlight that last night this vote concluded and Barnier’s government has collapsed. The Prime Minister is due to submit his resignation to the President […]

BRICS In case you missed it, and I very nearly did due to the sheer amount of soon to be again President Trump’s social media output, he was vociferous in his opposition to a BRICS inspired alternative currency to USD. While we have been following the long running Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa […]

The EUR/USD chasm One key US stock index, the S&P 500, recorded its 54th closing record for 2024 yesterday. Such equity performances are indicative of the fact that US sentiment and fundamentals continue to widen the transatlantic divide. Within the Eurozone, bond yields between member states continue to be volatile as spreads rise, with investors […]

Iceland Over the weekend the 390,000 people of Iceland who number almost the same as the most populous London Borough of Croydon have cast their votes in a snap election that will likely unseat the current coalition and replace it with another one composed of Social Democrats and the Liberal Reform party. Cost of living […]

86 This is the number of Basis Points between French and German Government Bond Yields and represents the highest level since 2012 which was the last time of a major EU crisis- which that time was Greece which had fallen from grace with the markets. Apart from this wide spread it is instructive as to […]

Reversion A defining feature of 2024’s FX market has been the inversion of many Dollar-termed forward curves. Despite the rising cost of holding US Dollars against the base of such currency pairs, the Dollar has remained relatively well bid. However, for those currencies that have emerged with a positive carry versus the US Dollar, FX […]

Globalisation As each week passes and returning President Trump’s January inauguration draws closer, he is if anything stepping up his rhetoric on the introduction of tariffs immediately after his return to office. China has responded in a measured way saying that they will maintain the value of the CNY rather than devaluing competitively as well […]

Where is the logic? The question posed by this daily brief may sound like a Black Eyed Peas song had they been woefully unsuccessful. But based on yesterday’s trading patterns is a wholly deserved question. The key data highlight released during yesterday’s European session was the German Ifo survey. As one of the leading indicators […]

EU Stagflation With inflation blipping up and business activity turning down, the S word is back on the table. Not only manufacturing but also the services sector fell sharply in November with the Purchasing Managers Index at its lowest level this year. The EUR facing a rampant Dollar is increasingly undermined by its own weakening […]

NYC Drought No not a mistake NYC issued a drought warning earlier this week: for the first time since 2002 New York City has such a water shortage that residents and businesses are being asked to respectively take fewer shorter showers and to conserve water. Reservoirs are well below normal levels and to accentuate the […]

What about December? If you listen closely, you can almost hear the sleigh bells ringing. December is just around the corner and as the angst towards those who put up decorations sometime in late summer fades in favour of cheer and good will to all men, it’ll soon be year-end. Before that however, at the […]