SGM-FX insights

Inside the Hourglass,   Sovereign states must increasingly feel as though their countries are built upon the bedrock of the sand in a rapidly shrinking hourglass; assuming a position in an ever-collapsing pool, occasionally colliding with each other and frequently going under. Today was the turn of Euro to take a turn for the worse. […]

Stumbling Block,   In a surprising day for markets, the Euro is the major mover. Markets paid enormous interest to the Italian budgetary negotiations within their newly formed domestic coalition. With the dominating ‘League’ party, the composition of spending was almost entirely up for grabs, with secessionist sentiment surrounding the entire debacle. However, with numerous […]

The Sterling continued to extend its consolidation through the European session yesterday. Once again, the US session looked upon our domestic pressure with less sanguine eyes, succumbing to political uncertainty amidst staunch Commons conflict and even intra-party disputes. Speaking once again later today in Washington, May could provide the market with hope for the other […]

Tainted Promises,   Salzburg provided sterling markets with ultimately intraday gains in excess of 0.5%; one of Sterling’s best performances in months. The developments were great enough to push cable (GBPUSD) to close to 1.33, rolling another month’s worth of losses from the currency pair, equal to a 1.15% intraday displacement in favour of the […]

All quiet in Austria,   Following a tumultuous day yesterday, Sterling this morning has had a directional purpose, currently trading around 30 basis points stronger on a trade weighted basis since its market open. The strong buying support is being driven by anticipation of progress at the informal EU summit in Salzburg, Austria, however, with […]

Tariffs, Tariffs everywhere; but not a Dollar peak?!   $200Bn worth of goods at 10% levied against Chinese Exports to the US, including the proviso for this to raise to 25% next year, and now $60Bn worth of US exports to China will face 10% levies. Oh yeah, and the US sanctions on Iran come […]

Tariffs are so last week:   Sterling performed admirably yesterday amidst a risk-on feel. The Pound broke through important resistance barriers at 1.1250 against the Euro (EURGBP 0.888). Against the Dollar, the move was even more impressive, closing above 1.31 for the first time in one month. Across the board, Sterling hit 6-week highs yesterday, […]

Tame; Light volatility; Grab a handrail:   Yesterday’s three interest rate decisions fell into place as predicted. A tame and uneventful Bank of England rate decision saw the Pound do little more than flutter. With a 9-0 vote within the Monetary Policy Committee and interest rates being held at 75 basis points, expectations were met […]

  Rate Decisions All Around:   The United Kingdom, the European Union and Turkey all have interest rate decisions today. The order of importance and excitement is likely to follow that direction; with Turkey facing a pivotal and future-defining moment and little expected to occur at the Bank of England. There remains risk around the […]

Plain Sailing across the Channel:   This Brexit malarkey is a walk in the park! Well, that’s what the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Dominic Raab MP, must be thinking! Largely coincidentally, since the departure of David Davis, news on Brexit has been overwhelmingly positive, providing a boost to Sterling: Barnier mentions […]

Realistic and Possible:   Four consecutive days of Brexit sentiment certainly has the Pound supported, but it has me concerned. The fragility of the statements presents a serious risk to the Pound should the expectations that news snippets have nurtured be undermined. Markets are in a risk-off mood this morning with safe havens including the […]

In the Green:   The Swedish elections have slipped by with relative quiet. The political risk that elections have brought to the domestic economy had been sufficient in recent weeks to push the Swedish Krone back down to critical lows last seen in 2009. The correlation and price action within major crosses over the past […]