SGM-FX insights

La Belle France:   It may be a long time ago, but it just goes to show that at the time of (the last real as opposed to Le Petit Emanuel) Napoleon, some good sense did come from France: Burgundy makes you think of foolish things, Bordeaux makes you talk about them and Champagne makes […]

Président Charles de Gaulle: Hard cheese.   Was he right? He blocked the UK’s first attempt to join the European Community in 1963. “Too maritime, too insular, too original in its traditions and too tied to its distant markets to become good Europeans.” Just to remind you he also explained his own domestic difficulties as […]

Viva Espana   Despite having one of the largest EU unemployment numbers at 3.3million, Spain is continuing to post the highest growth rate in the EU at 2.5%. Next year Spanish growth is forecast to be 2.2% far ahead of the rest of the other largest countries -France, Germany and Italy in the Eurozone. Ole […]

Global Markets   Commodities: Gold at $1318, WTI Oil at $59.83, Both up more than 1% Currencies: GBP weaker following the PM writing to Eurozone applying for an extension yesterday. A rally in GBP only likely if the PM gets her deal through; right now with the PM’s late night speech, a NoDeal is back […]

Global Markets   Commodities: Gold at $1305, WTI Oil at $58.97, Palladium through $1600 for the first time. Currencies: Swedish Krona weakness unnerving markets. Indian Rupee gone from worst to best performing currency. GBP while weaker following Westminster’s events yesterday, is attracting increasing interest and more expectation of a rally. USD weaker versus EUR. Equities: […]

Eurostar   If there are any Remainers out there who are trying to take Eurostar this week: in the event that there is R2 or a second referendum (unlikely in our view) my hunch is that they will vote Leave this time!  Apart from wanting more money(so?) French customs officers are striking to “demonstrate the […]

Et tu Brute?!   Friday of last weekend was the day 2062 years ago in 44BC that Julius Caesar was murdered by a conspiracy of senators. Theresa May must have heaved a sigh of relief that she survived Friday and no doubt was thinking that a modern day JC opposite her deserved the same fate! […]

Indian Elections   One of the great logistical exercises globally is due to start on April 11: 900M Indian voters will head to the polls to elect 545 candidates over 9 separate voting days depending on location with the last day of voting on 19-05-19. Counting starts on 23-05-19 and will take 3 days. The […]

Italy: Chinese Checkers?   China is taking advantage of weakness in the Italian economy to increase its influence and strengthen ties between the two nations. China is keen to gain ownership of Italian ports such as Genoa to give them access to the Northern European markets by road from the Italian port. Italy is the […]

La Belle France and La Bella Italia   The French Government in the past 3 years has been able to fund itself at between minus 0.75% and minus 0.25%- it now is at pretty much in the middle of that range. In other words, lenders to France are paying 0.50% for the privilege of lending […]

A Busy Day for the UK Prime Minister   Apart from (just?) trying to save her Brexit deal, Theresa May read the lesson at Westminster Abbey at yesterday’s Commonwealth Service with all senior members of the Royal Family in attendance; then she embarked on a series of shuttle diplomacy telephone calls with Brussels; last for […]

Europe: In a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty   Those words are Mario Draghi’s who as Governor of the European Central Bank is well qualified to use them. European interest rates will not rise before 2020 and a cheap funding scheme for banks will be re-launched aimed specifically at Spanish and Italian banks. […]