SGM-FX insights

Waiting Game:     Voting has closed in South Africa’s national and provincial election, but it will take time to understand how the electorate expressed their will at the 22,924 polling stations across the nation. Results are scheduled to be released by May 11th and any exit or advanced polls are typically poor reflections of […]

Markets   With the news that the UK will hold EU Elections on 23-5-19, while discounted, GBP nevertheless sold off to close last night on the lows of the day. No news on a deal between the Government and the Opposition-yet. ZAR volatile in advance of the South African election today. Oil sharply lower at […]

Trump is like a box of chocolates; you never know which one you’re going to get.     Noel, I’m ready for the question: deal or no deal? Perhaps the bluntness of the presenter of the (in)famous Channel Four television show would be welcomed in Sino-US trade talks. Markets yesterday took badly to the whimsical […]

  Markets   Big news this week has been the fallback in oil prices to WTI at $61. All eyes in the US and globally on the tea leaves following the Fed’s remarks this week and of course the forthcoming employment data. Bank of England upbeat about UK employment and Governor Carney said yesterday that […]

A Matter of Global Importance   It’s time to talk planetary defence. I’d be surprised if the coveted FEMA-NASA research event that has unfolded this week is not already at the forefront of your mind. However, if the 13th page of the free London newspaper the Metro or the ‘Strange’ tab of Sky News hasn’t […]

Markets   At the beginning of this week 1USD would have bought you 42 Argentine Pesos. Today that has become 45 Argentine Pesos. A 7%+ devaluation in a week is dramatic for the already beleaguered Argentine economy and represents a record low for the Peso. This has affected all emerging markets. Generally the USD has […]

INDYREF-eree!   Yesterday’s confirmation by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon failed by rain on Sterling’s parade. Sterling finished the European trading session yesterday 0.3% up against the Euro and 0.2% against a strong US Dollar. Whilst the Pound eventually lost the battle against the US Dollar in New York trading hours, it did manage to […]

Markets   Have started the week in a positive frame of mind with the Dow recording a record high and its best performance since last September, oil firm with WTI at $64.04 and USD strong and unchanged.     In the Beginning… (Genesis) or Beresheet in Hebrew   The Israeli Beresheet moon mission ran into […]

A lot of sunburned Brits will be headed back to work today after the long weekend. All four nations of the United Kingdom enjoyed their hottest Easter Mondays on record, with Saturday also stealing the 2019 crown for the hottest day so far this year. My thanks go to the Met Office for these statistics […]

Rand Resilience   South Africa’s Rand is one of the most freely traded emerging market currencies in the world. With limited protectionist monetary architecture against capital in/out flows and with no explicit targeted manipulation of the currency from the central bank, the Rand is subject to the whims of international sentiment.   With this in […]

Exchange Rates   We have written previously about the low level of exchange rate volatility in the past year and it is now official: exchange rate swings are at a low for the past 5 years. Euro/USD 3 month volatility is running at a third of the norm over the past 18 years. The closely […]

Great edifices, like great mountains, are the work of centuries:     I should think many of you reading this brief right now have visited, seen, or at least heard of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. No doubt too that you have spotted the saddening news of the fire that last night caused as-yet […]