Morning Brief – UK House Prices

UK House Prices

The 5 fastest rising areas in the UK property market are rural and coastal and are: Inverclyde, Conwy, Vale of Glamorgan, Hastings and North Devon which have averaged 24% in the past year. At the other end of the scale the fallers are all in London and are Lewisham, Westminster, Newham, Lambeth and the City which have fallen an average of 4%. GBP/USD at 1.3440 shaken and definitely not stirred this James Bond week.

Chinese Power Cuts

As much as 40% of China’s industry is being affected by power cuts which have been exacerbated by excess demand for goods as the world snaps back from the pandemic. A shortage of coal as the Chinese government restricts emissions means that the price has risen. The response from the Chinese government has been to ration electricity and (temporarily) abandon its green(er) credentials in line with becoming Carbon Neutral by 2060, and to start looking for alternative sources of coal from Russia and Indonesia. The industries hardest hit by the power cuts are those which are energy intensive such as steel production, aluminium smelting, fertiliser production and cement production. USD/CNY at 6.4630.

India’s Banks

On the liability side of the balance sheet, the Indian banking system looks to be in rude health since it is awash with deposits. However the asset side of the balance sheet upon examination tells a different story with an estimated USD 100 billion of bad loans. An estimated $15 billion of new equity is (hopefully) posited as sufficient to recapitalise India’s banks by those who are galloping optimists. A more likely amount of $50 billion of new equity is required. Before trust in India’s banks is lost, a new bad bank is being set up which will take $27 billion of those bad loans. This is part of the answer but not the whole answer and is a good indicator of the extent of the problem. The low of USD/INR was 75.45 in April 2020 and the charts suggest that the Rupee is heading back there from its current 74.30 level.

Compact Disc Players

The first CD players were put on sale by the Sony Corporation of Japan on this day in 1982 at the extortionate cost of $650. They quickly became must have accessories for any 80’s hipster aspiring to any degree of credibility or cool and quickly supplanted vinyl and cassette tapes. The first artist to have an album available on CD was Billy Joel with his album 52nd Street which was not that cool but sold well. Here is one of the most melodic and best songs from the album:

Honesty:

It isn’t hard to find
You can have the love you need to live
But if you look for truthfulness
You might just as well be blind
It always seems to be so hard to give

Honesty is such a lonely word
Everyone is so untrue
Honesty is hardly ever heard
And mostly what I need from you

I can always find someone
To say they sympathize
If I wear my heart out on my sleeve
But I don’t want some pretty face
To tell me pretty lies
All I want is someone to believe

Honesty is such a lonely word
Everyone is so untrue
Honesty is hardly ever heard
And mostly what I need from you

I can find a lover
I can find a friend
I can have security until the bitter end
Anyone can comfort me
With promises again
I know, I know

If you search for tenderness

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter