Election/Independence Day
After a relatively short-lived campaign, the day of reckoning has finally arrived in UK politics. Polling stations are already open and won’t close until 10pm tonight. As FX market observers will be used to, news flow on election day is strictly controlled. Analysis of electoral items including the broadcasting of speeches and conjecture surrounding the election is forbidden. The results of any opinion polls also cannot be released whilst the polls remain open. Therefore, aside from your own markings on the ballot paper, the next tangible information you should know on the course of the election will be at 10pm today.
At this time the exit poll will be published. The exit poll looks at a sample of voting patterns across the nation. It’s by no means a sure fire read on how the ballot box will have played out. However, it is the most concrete piece of information that will be available for many hours to come. Decisive results from urban constituencies will be expected to be declared in the early hours of the morning. Those with closer run battles and typically constituencies in rural areas of the UK will take longer to publish. Depending on just how (un)competitive the election proves to be will depend on how soon the outcome of the election is known.
With UK politics all but off the table for the European session today, there are unlikely to be any surprises for GBP today. A quiet day in markets is expected also due in no small part to the US July 4th holiday. Friday will serve as a correction to this tranquillity as the election result becomes clear and a deluge of US data adds duels further Fed speculation. With respect to the latter, a fall in the Dollar in recent sessions has been attributed to the Chicago Fed President, typically dovish FOMC member. He highlighted a residual concern over whether the US labour market will be the variable that provides the pressure to push the Fed into cutting rates. With non-farm payrolls out tomorrow there will be good opportunity to assess the credibility of this concern.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Where’s the Trump Put?
Charles Porter
Thu 13 Mar 2025
Where’s the Trump Put? On Tuesday Trump went some way towards remediating for his comments that appeared to show a disregard for a recession over the weekend. In a Fox News interview on Sunday the President declined to rule out the prospect of a recession, contributing to the stock market decline come Monday. For what […]
Daily Brief – Change of heart?
Charles Porter
Thu 6 Mar 2025
Change of heart? Over the last 24 hours the market has decisively reframed its position of tariffs. Its ability to reshape the logic of tariffs is likely a result of the heightened volatility and risk witnessed throughout the market. The outcome is as follows: tariffs whilst ordinarily and previously thought to be inflationary and a […]
Daily Brief – EURUSD rotation
Charles Porter
Tue 11 Mar 2025
EURUSD rotation EURUSD has made a dramatic U-turn from the inevitable grind lower to parity most analysts were predicting. A stronger Dollar come year end is still not being removed from the base case by most. However, its current momentum higher stands in defiance of that outcome. However, as we are seeing now, there are […]
