Daily Brief – 86

86

This is the number of Basis Points between French and German Government Bond Yields and represents the highest level since 2012 which was the last time of a major EU crisis- which that time was Greece which had fallen from grace with the markets. Apart from this wide spread it is instructive as to what happens when a major nation power this time As France stops defying gravity, and markets demonstrate their resistance to its perceived lack of credit worthiness the France’s deficit is projected to reach 6.1% of its GDP by the end of this year versus the maximum EU limit of 3%. The ratio of France’s debt to GDP is predicted to reach 112.4% by the end of 2024. While PM Barnier’s budget is targeted to reduce that ratio by 5%, it is viewed as being unrealistic. All of that adds up to markets concluding that Barnier is past his sell by date and most insultingly to the French, that France is a modern version of… Greece.

EUR/GBP 0.8323.

Electronic Travel Authorisation

The UK’s ETA has already been put in place and Qatar for example has been able to make use of this method of entry into the UK for a year. From January many more countries will be included but it is April 2025 less than 6 months away that European citizens will come under this umbrella. This is part of the UK’s plan to digitise its borders by the end of 2025 and as the different countries are included, citizens who do not have the UK’s ETA and arrive in the UK are liable to be fined.

EUR/USD 1.0543.

In Case of Crisis or War

First issued during WW2 and last updated in 2018, Sweden re-issued for the 5th time the pamphlet entitled In Case of Crisis or War this week to its 5 million citizens. This time it has been amended to make reference to cyber crime, fake news and disinformation. Finland, Denmark and Norway have all taken similar steps in recent months.

EUR/JPY 159.93.

Inflation v Growth

In the EU or more particularly at the European Central Bank, with the looming and growing likelihood of US sanctions, the mood music is turning towards a bazooka 50 basis point rate cut. Never mind that rising energy prices will send inflation 0.3% higher in all likelihood, it is growth that should be the priority. Watch this space.

GBP/USD 1.2665.

FBI in Wales

After 20+ years on the run, fugitive FBI Daniel San Diego was run to earth in Maenan North Wales having purchased a house there in 2023 for GBP 420K. Reported to have been an animal rights activist who had planted explosives in bio tech companies in California back in 2003, the long arm of the FBI caught up with him in a remote house at the end of a farm track. Hardly Bonnie and Clyde but Daniel San Diego apart from being obviously American turned out to be the only extremist in the village.

Super Trouper

This day in 1980 Swedish super pop quartet ABBA had a Number One hit with this stomper their 25th chart single: almost called Blinka Lilla Stjarna or Twinkle Little Star in Swedish, Abba knew their target market and soon the working title was changed to Super Trouper:

Super trouper beams are gonna blind me
But I won’t feel blue
Like I always do
‘Cause somewhere in the crowd there’s you

I was sick and tired of everything
When I called you last night from Glasgow
All I do is eat and sleep and sing
Wishing every show was the last show (wishing every show was the last show)
So imagine I was glad to hear you’re coming (glad to hear you’re coming)
Suddenly I feel all right (and suddenly it’s gonna be)
And it’s gonna be so different when I’m on the stage tonight

Tonight the super trouper lights are gonna find me
Shining like the sun (super trouper)
Smiling, having fun (super trouper)
Feeling like a number one

Tonight the super trouper beams are gonna blind me (super trouper)
But I won’t feel blue (super trouper)
Like I always do (super trouper)
‘Cause somewhere in the crowd there’s you

Facing twenty-thousand of your friends
How can anyone be so lonely?
Part of a success that never ends
Still I’m thinking about you only (still I’m thinking about you only)
There are moments when I think I’m going crazy (think I’m going crazy)
But it’s gonna be alright (you’ll soon be changing everything)
Everything will be so different when I’m on the stage tonight.

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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