SGM-FX insights

French Parliament  Some more examination of President Macron’s appointment of Michel Barnier as his Prime Minister reveals more about the calculation behind the decision. Nothing to do with MB being known for being dull, nor for organising the 1992 Winter Olympics in Albertville and not even for his more recent role as EU Brexit negotiator. […]

Oil Why is oil at the year’s low? Look no further than the litany of reasons affecting the market as a whole. In no particular order: economic slowdown in China; vertiginous drop in Nvidia share price; disappointing economic releases in the USA particularly on Jobs and Manufacturing and last for good measure the expectation that […]

US Dollar With Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the time has come” speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming USA the direction for USD in the next four months is down versus GBP, EUR and JPY. So far so easy in the fraught game of FX forecasting, but it would seem that Chair Powell has concluded that US interest […]

Business friendly European countries There are over 24 million Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in Europe and collectively they employ 85 million people. The countries rated as being the most friendly or hospitable to new businesses are Ireland, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Rachel Reeves’ Budget on October 31st will determine whether the […]

German Parliamentary Elections Maybe not something to set the readers’ pulses racing but as an indication of the way that the tide is turning when it comes to German opinion on immigration, Sunday’s elections in Saxony and Thuringia in Eastern Germany will likely see the Alternative for Germany, hard right party top the polls. Chancellor […]

Germany The post WW2 economic much lauded miracle that was Germany is at odds with 2024 Germany which managed a 0.2% increase in GDP in Q1 but fell by 0.1% in Q2. That means that in Q2 Germany has slid to the foot of the table with USA at the other end at +2.8% with […]

Jackson Hole At the world’s central bankers’ forum there is nothing bigger than today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. What he says about a) Crushing inflation and b) the US employment market will precede his justification for signalling an interest rate cut which in turn will educate what the world can expect for economic […]

Eurozone Yesterday EU inflation came in at 2.6% for the year to end July up from 2.5% to end June. Hardly enough to frighten the horses but the market is all too aware of ECB President Lagarde’s comments regarding inflation in the last few months. On that basis the conclusion is that EU interest rate […]

Volatility Good news and less good news. As we have written recently the Vix or Volatility Index was trading in the high teens before the recent market turmoil on the back of Japan raising interest rates, USA not raising rates and a poor US unemployment number. Then the Vix shot up to 65 before plummeting […]

UK GDP It may not suit the narrative of the UK’s naysayers and doomsters, but Q2 UK GDP showed +0.6%. Apart from being good news for UK plc it almost certainly will dampen the enthusiasm for the Bank of England’s MPC to cut rates again immediately. That in turn strengthens the case for GBP to […]

Oil Between August 2 and 6 oil traded steadily with Brent at $76.50. That changed just over a week ago with fears of an escalation in the Israel-Gaza conflict and a wider Iran involvement. With a spike up to over $82 the market has seen a rise in the oil risk premium on the grounds […]

US Election Plenty to think about as we went into the weekend with Trump finally agreeing to a debate with his rival Kamala Harris on September 10th. That news was however quickly overtaken by the announcement that Trump has agreed to an interview with Elon Musk tonight. Given that the weekend polls now show that […]