SGM-FX insights

November 5 In the unlikely event that apart from being Guy Fawkes Night, November 5th is also the day when Americans cast their votes for their next President has passed you by, you may be cheered to learn of who the UK’s Channel Four have lined up to commentate as the results pour in: Stormy […]

Chinese Tariffs When the EU decided to impose tariffs and restrictions on Chinese Electric Vehicles entering the EU this summer, there was little thought about the law of unintended consequences. That came home yesterday when China retaliated by requiring Brandy imports into China to be accompanied by security deposits of between 34 and 39%. Martell, […]

EU One of the unspoken questions arising from Mario Draghi’s no punches report on the EU is: what is the EU for and where does it want to go? The further integration topic is not addressed let alone solved, since the mood music is against greater integration unless it is driven by the fear factor […]

Bank of England In an interview with the Guardian newspaper, Governor Bailey made it clear that Central Banks could afford to cut interest rates more sharply. Markets correctly interpreted that statement as him preparing the way for cuts at pretty much every Bank of England MPC meeting for the next 6 months until they reach […]

Fifty Up Exactly 50 years ago today I set out on my career in the City of London. Many of the men whom I worked with wore bowler hats and smoked pipes. Discount House men wore morning dress and top hats. Everyone wore two or three piece suits and black shoes. If you wore brown […]

EU Rate Cut With EU core inflation now reported to be 1.7% led by both France with inflation of 1.5.% and Spain at 1.6%, expectations are now running high for an ECB rate cut of 0.25% on October 17. The EU inflation target is 2% so on that measure alone the market is right in […]

Berlin and Rome As we have written several times recently the German car industry is going through tough times as is the Italian car industry especially given the hard date of 2035 when the sales of diesel and petrol fuelled cars will no longer be permitted. Now their respective governments are indicating a softening of […]

British Pound The news that Goldman Sachs is predicting a GBP/USD level of 1.40 in the next 12 months reflects the positive sentiment based on interest rate differentials as we wrote yesterday plus a re-rating of the USD which seems less certain given the current geo political turmoil-see below. However GBP is now enjoying its […]

Ukraine Loan Russia has FX reserves of EUR 270 billion of which EUR 210 billion sits in Euroclear Brussels. The EU has stopped short of seizing those reserves which would be illegal but has come up with EUR 35 billion of the EUR 50 billion pledged to help Ukraine internationally. How? By borrowing EUR 35 […]

Bank of England As expected the Monetary Policy Committee left UK interest rates unchanged following yesterday’s  50 basis point cut in the USA and last week’s 25 basis point cut in the EU. Inflation at 2.2% is creditable given where it has been and for the moment it looks unlikely that the UK will cut […]

EU Business Sentiment Looking at the overall EU business sentiment, the Germany ZEW business sentiment mirrors it: both are at a 1 year low. Maybe just maybe later today the Federal Reserve could deliver a shot of adrenaline to the US and by inference the global economy with a big booster of a cut. Meanwhile […]

China A snapshot of China today gives more than a strong indication of the likely effect on the rest of the world’s economies. In August, China had record breaking temperatures – the highest for 60 years which was further exacerbated by thunderstorms which affected agriculture sending vegetable prices 22% higher than 1 year before. Despite […]