SGM-FX insights

Recession?   About a decade ago you could pick up virtually any newspaper (with perhaps the exception of the Daily Star or the Sun) and see the phrase Double Dip Recession or equivalent brandished on the front page. Whether it was accompanied by a vitriolic attack on the incumbent Conservative government, a backward-looking blame on […]

Fed Up   Powell’s on board – we think – following his testimony to the House Finance Committee yesterday afternoon. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, the United States’ monetary policy and interest rate setting authority, spoke to politicians yesterday offering a dovish testimony that saw the value of the US Dollar fall sharply. The […]

Swing Low   The carry trade is a favourite in foreign exchange (or indeed any) investment: use something cheap to buy something rewarding that you hope in turn is still worth something at the time you decide to cash your chips in. For example, with the Rand yielding 6.75% due to its underlying interest rate […]

Gold and the US Yield Curve   With gold over $1420 there is still more buying this week due to the fact that 3 month US Treasury Bill Yields are higher than the 10 year US Treasury Bond Yield. This bellwether indicator is closely followed because each time this has happened in the past 50 […]

Italy and its Budget: a contradiction in terms   As described here two weeks ago, Italy is pushing hard against tough budgetary restraints from the EU. The gap is €40 Billion. Italy’s Deputy PM is playing hardball and has reminded the EU just how much Italy owes to the rest of the EU with the […]

Pocahontas     Even the pros at Disney might have trouble thinking up and depicting the delicate rise and fall of emotions between China’s Xi Jinping and the States’ Donald Trump. Following this weekend’s summit, we’re closer to the resolve, the closing credits and watching the fully grown man in the back row pretending he […]

Trump and G20   It was even more compelling watching than Glastonbury with multiple sound stages and even more multiple sound bites. The SGM-FX elves were hard at it trying to decipher whether Mutti Merkel was simply suffering from stress or something more serious, what that meant for Germany and Europe and whether PM May […]

End of Quite a Week   With this weekend’s G20 meeting there really is so much that could go right -or wrong- and markets are rightly fixated on signals regarding USA-China trade talks; European economics; British politics; Gulf tensions and in particular the potential for Iran to abandon the nuclear agreement plus last but not […]

Wrecking Ball     We’ve had baby Trump in a diaper hovering tens of feet above parliament square but I’ve got a new idea for all you Trump sceptics out there for your next false idol before the President. A Miley Cyrus ‘smash hit’ – Wrecking Ball – inspired figure featuring Trump on a wrecking […]

Markets   With US officials now playing down the likelihood of a US-China trade deal at the forthcoming G20 at the end of this week, there are two takeaways for seasoned market watchers: first there is little likelihood of a trade deal given the well known entrenched positions of the protagonists and second the USA […]

Group of 20     How many sets of eyes and ears do you really need in order to react quickly to the set of discussions taking place in Osaka, Japan this Friday? A minimum for 10 pairs, assuming each leader has a conversation with at least one other person and doesn’t have a solitary […]

Tango Time     Alright it’s not September yet, Strictly’s not back on TV and our tango won’t star one sequin clad pro and an overweight celebrity Ed Balls with far too much enthusiasm to be healthy (sorry Ed). But the composition of the showdown between the two potential next leaders of the Conservative Party […]