SGM-FX insights

Where’s the Trump Put? On Tuesday Trump went some way towards remediating for his comments that appeared to show a disregard for a recession over the weekend. In a Fox News interview on Sunday the President declined to rule out the prospect of a recession, contributing to the stock market decline come Monday. For what […]

US Recession In the past year the USA and indeed the whole world has been watching and hoping that the Federal reserve will succeed in bringing down inflation without causing a recession. That is the Goldilocks scenario which is described as a soft landing. Looking at the S&P 500 which has declined 7% since January […]

EURUSD rotation  EURUSD has made a dramatic U-turn from the inevitable grind lower to parity most analysts were predicting. A stronger Dollar come year end is still not being removed from the base case by most. However, its current momentum higher stands in defiance of that outcome. However, as we are seeing now, there are […]

Autonomy and Atlanticism These are the stark choices that European leaders seem to be advocating to their still to catch up partially in denial electorates. At one extreme is French President Macron who is banging the drum for European self reliance and autonomy from US protection having concluded that the USA cannot be relied on. […]

European Central Bank As widely expected the ECB duly cut EUR interest rates by 25bps yesterday. However the orderly conduct of EU monetary policy is currently anything but orderly in the light of the German coalition partners agreeing to bypass the long standing debt rules. (see below) While the services inflation element is down to […]

Change of heart? Over the last 24 hours the market has decisively reframed its position of tariffs. Its ability to reshape the logic of tariffs is likely a result of the heightened volatility and risk witnessed throughout the market. The outcome is as follows: tariffs whilst ordinarily and previously thought to be inflationary and a […]

Trumpcession A new word coined by the markets to include in the financial lexicon and this word neatly sums up the concern that Trump’s tariffs will result in a US recession which will in turn pervade the global economy. The USD has weakened on the back of the implementation of the first round of tariffs […]

The ECB:  Still a driver of EURUSD? This week will see the ECB deliver its latest monetary policy decision. Partly down to the role that the ECB has carved for itself, but more likely due to the volatility induced by Trump’s current administration, the significance of such events to key currency crosses is rightfully being questioned. […]

European Economies Of the 5 largest European economies, the largest 3 being Germany, UK and France are growing more slowly than Italy and Spain . That is if they are measured by job postings. However the number of job postings turns out to be a reliable indicator on this occasion. So for those looking for […]

Germany After all the sturm and drang of the German election at the weekend, the outcome can be summed up as the far Right AFD making the most seat gains at +69 and the Far Left Die Linke wining +25 seats but with the pyrrhic victory of no other parties being willing to work with […]

The other side of the pair USDJPY is undeniably one of the most important currency pairs in the FX market. It plays its role as a significant barometer for market sentiment globally as well as regional risk. USDJPY has the second highest traded volume on average in the market behind EURUSD. For almost a decade […]

Germany The victory for Chancellor Merz in the weekend Election was popular with the market and the EUR duly strengthened. This was more of a gut reaction than a reasoned response as while the result chimed with the EU political weather, any logical reasoning will lead to the conclusion that the formation of a working […]