SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Daily Brief – EU Consumers

Daily Brief – EU Consumers

Humphrey Percy Mon 7 Apr 2025

EU Consumers While no one would pretend that the past week has been good for savers and investors, there is a glimmer of hope for EU consumers. The argument goes as follows: the EU exports EUR 500 billion of goods to the USA and imports EUR 350 billion. Conversely, the EU’s service sector is exactly […]

Daily Brief – Weaker US Dollar

Daily Brief – Weaker US Dollar

Humphrey Percy Fri 4 Apr 2025

Weaker US Dollar As the dust settles and the tealeaves are sifted, the obvious early take is that POTUS has achieved an initial post tariff announcement reduction in the value of USD which he stated as his aim before he took office. An immediate jump in value of so called safe haven currencies Japanese Yen […]

Daily Brief – Now that’s what I call Tariffs 

Daily Brief – Now that’s what I call Tariffs 

Charles Porter Thu 3 Apr 2025

Now that’s what I call Tariffs  The title of this briefing is an homage to that (n)ever-popular publication of CDs (formerly vinyl) that seemed to be everywhere when I was growing up. Containing the ‘best’ hits of a particular year, you never seemed to be far from a ‘now that’s what I call’ CD (or […]

Daily Brief – US Trade War Tariffs

Daily Brief – US Trade War Tariffs

Humphrey Percy Wed 2 Apr 2025

US Trade War Tariffs With all markets awaiting what emanates from POTUS later today, Trump has certainly achieved one aim: getting the world’s collective attention. Increasingly desperate TV pundits have spent the past hours dragging past Trade Negotiators into the studio in an effort to get them to predict what the tariffs will look like. […]

Daily Brief – Holding on

Daily Brief – Holding on

Charles Porter Tue 1 Apr 2025

Holding on With less than a 10% probability of a cut priced into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy decision, it is unsurprising markets open today to news of a hold. The RBA adopted a lower peak rate of benchmark interest than the likes of the UK and USA with lower inflationary […]

Daily Brief – De-Dollarization

Daily Brief – De-Dollarization

Humphrey Percy Mon 31 Mar 2025

De-Dollarization A shift away from the US Dollar with Central Bank Reserves denominated in US Dollars moving down from a high of just over 70% down to 60% in the past 20 years is note worthy but the speed of that decline makes it less striking. However there are 3 factors that are changing the […]

Daily Brief – Pairs Trading

Daily Brief – Pairs Trading

Humphrey Percy Fri 28 Mar 2025

Pairs Trading Back in the days when I worked in Bermuda for a hedge fund, we were always seeking stocks that were overvalued and other stocks that were undervalued having analysed both sets of historical price behaviours. Normally those stocks were in the same industry but not necessarily in the same geographic region. In the […]

Daily Brief – Pointless Being the Point

Daily Brief – Pointless Being the Point

Charles Porter Thu 27 Mar 2025

Pointless Being the Point Yesterday, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Budget to the House of Commons. Since the government’s first budget last year, bond markets have not been kind to the Chancellor, taking its angst out in the form of higher yields. The selling (and increased issuance) of UK gilts has inevitably created […]

Daily Brief – British Government Securities-Gilts

Daily Brief – British Government Securities-Gilts

Humphrey Percy Wed 26 Mar 2025

British Government Securities-Gilts Gilts are increasingly popular as a place for UK investors to park savings: the Interactive platform for example is seeing a 42% increase in gilt transactions and a 65% increase in gilt investments. Part of the reason is that in the first 6 months of 2025 no less than GBP 80 billion […]

Daily Brief – What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord, and should markets care?

Daily Brief – What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord, and should markets care?

Charles Porter Tue 25 Mar 2025

What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord, and should markets care? At heart, the Mar-a-Lago Accord is a proposal for President Trump to weaken the US Dollar. As we know, Trump’s typical deregulatory and risk-inducing persuasion would, all other things equal, increase demand for the US Dollar. As far as the relationship between perceived risk and the […]

Daily Brief – Gold

Daily Brief – Gold

Humphrey Percy Mon 24 Mar 2025

Gold Another week and another high for Gold at $3045. It’s not just the fear factor that leads investors to buy Gold, it’s the Central Bank buying in a bid to diversify away from USD. In the past 3 years, that buying has amounted to over 1000 tons led by China and India, but also other […]

Daily Brief – Uncertainty and GBP

Daily Brief – Uncertainty and GBP

Humphrey Percy Fri 21 Mar 2025

Uncertainty and GBP This is the word that dominates market thinking at present. No surprise that like the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged with that uncertainty overshadowing all markets plus the expectation of UK inflation rising from its current 3% rather than falling to the target of 2%. […]

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