US Election
Bearing in mind that the CNN poll was taken on July 2 well after the disastrous debate between Trump and Biden but it put Trump ahead at 49% versus Biden at 43%, the subsequent ABC interview with pre-advised questions for President Biden will have done little or more likely will have compounded the view that the Democrats would be best served with a different candidate. Despite the seemingly unlikely choice given the rock bottom approval ratings of VP Kamala Harris if she were to be selected as that candidate, she does have the following advantages over most but not all others: she is a woman, she is of African American and Asian ethnicity and last but most importantly, Kamala Harris has name recognition as the serving VP. Right now in the event that Biden steps back, Kamala Harris is the most likely Democrat replacement. Tellingly a poll also taken on July 2 put Trump also ahead of Harris at 47% to 45%.
EUR/USD 1.0830.
UK outlook through the bottom of a glass half full
Following last week’s stunning UK election result the following outcomes are all possible and we have to hope likely: confidence from both domestic and international investors bringing investment that has been placed on hold; an increase in personal consumer expenditure which will drive improvements in the economy; planning reforms that will clarify and streamline the current maze of regulation without destroying England’s green and pleasant land; sufficient confidence for the government to put in place measures that will bear fruit in the life of both this government and the next; not choking off the benefits of these measures by imposing stifling tax increases.
GBP/USD 1.2808