Morning Brief – Monday 24th

Istanbul Express(ion) by its citizens

Over the weekend the citizens of Istanbul spoke and the result was a decisive defeat for President Erdogan’s policies with 54% of the vote for the Mayor of Istanbul going to Ekrem Imamoglu. Why is this significant? First because the expected winner Erdogan man Binali Yildirim only won 45%. Second the Mayor of the commercial and key principal city of Istanbul can reasonably aspire to becoming President in due course- that was the route followed by President Erdogan which is why he is so concerned. The markets have been justifiably wary of the suggestion of less than free and fair elections in the recent past, but this result has already served to strengthen the Lira against the USD overnight.

FOMO

We last wrote about Bitcoin two months ago having seen the cryptocurrency burst into life since the beginning of the year and it having risen from $3000 to $6000. That momentum has continued and a month ago it reached $8000.Then on Friday it rose to $10,769.As highlighted earlier, this is partly driven by demand caused by many newly affluent Chinese wanting to get money out of China versus scarce supply of this highly expensive to mine currency. But there is another factor at play here which is as old as time…
FOMO or the fear of missing out! Buckle up as $10K is a key chartpoint and Bitcoin or BTC has only spent 3% of its already eventful life above that level!

The Happiness Graph

Reading about this topic it is striking that up until we reach the age of 30, statistically our happiness increases, then there is a 20 year decline in pretty much a straight line before at the age of 50 and at a low point of one’s life, the decline is arrested. However by the age of 60 one is setting new levels of happiness above the previous high at age 30 and soaring on in a perpetual straight line
for the rest of our lives. That’s presumably the reason for those grinning baby boomer silver surfers enjoying the good life in most weekend publications!

Gulf Tensions

As we write, POTUS has announced that he will impose new sanctions on Iran this morning, both international and local airlines are re-routing aircraft away from potential areas where there may be armed conflict and stock markets in the region have extended their downward trends. Despite reports that the USA wants a new nuclear agreement with Iran rather than war, markets and the region as a whole are tense.

UK Politics

Four weeks today will see the new Conservative Party leader and UK Prime Minister announced. No need to comment on the weekend domestic incident regarding Boris Johnson; it just goes to show that you can’t have a leadership contest without breaking a few dishes..and glasses..and spilling the odd glass of red wine. Polls show that some people care and others don’t. The GBP market showed how much it cared ….by strengthening!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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