GBP…and where to over the next few weeks?
Never Gonna Give You Up-with thanks to Rick Astley (birthday #53 last week: congrats Rick!)
At the beginning of Valentine week (following the week that was) it is timely to remind ourselves of what the various outcomes could mean from the UK Parliament vote as and when it occurs. The chart below struck me as being useful and thanks to our friends at RBC CM who have collated it.
Possible scenarios and potential Sterling outcomes: worth preparing given that it now looks as if the Prime Minister’s plan is to tell Parliament that a vote will be pushed out from Thursday for at least two weeks.
Markets start the week with a further US Government Shutdown looking increasingly likely following Congressional talks running into trouble and the Democrats and Republicans rumoured not to be talking to each other over the weekend. Stock markets around the world closed last week mostly either small up or down with FTSE +0.73%, Dow +0.17% but with the Nikkei -2.40% despite the Hang Seng more positively at +1.36%-the Chinese market came back in a positive frame of mind after their New Year celebrations.
In Currency world GBP after some see saw days in the past couple of weeks remains steady and unchanged against USD and EUR and ZAR. That could come to an abrupt halt with increased volatility later in the week once the debate restarts on Brexit and the UK’s increasingly fractious relationship with Brussels. NB Brussels not necessarily all of Europe!
So in Rick’s words:
The Prime Minister is no doubt hoping that the Conservative Party this week of all weeks is:
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – A weaker Dollar: Trump vs. Powell
Charles Porter
Thu 26 Jun 2025
A weaker Dollar: Trump vs. Powell The Dollar continued to lose ground yesterday as the truce between Israel and Iran appeared to continue to hold. There has been a noticeable return to focus upon macro and monetary influences in major currency pairs. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jay Powell provided his semi-annual monetary policy report before the […]
Daily Brief – Big Girls Don’t Cry
Charles Porter
Thu 3 Jul 2025
Big Girls Don’t Cry A bond market tantrum and one of the sharpest one day sell offs in Sterling for several years appear to have been catalysed by the Chancellor’s appearance in PMQs yesterday. First: the back story. This Labour government has faced some embarrassment in recent weeks trying to get its welfare bill through […]
Daily Brief – Next level
Charles Porter
Tue 1 Jul 2025
Next level EURUSD has managed a relatively smooth ascent to its current levels, around 1.18. That is despite significant resistance levels, most notably around 1.17. A large collection of option strike prices gathered around this key level and the price history of the pair shows us its significance. Sustained closes above this level since last […]
